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Commodity outlook: Crude oil dips; here’s how others may fare


Bullion counters jumped but crude oil and base metals slipped in morning trade on Monday amid rising threat of coronavirus that has taken over 6,500 lives till now.

Crude oil was down 3.34 per cent to Rs 2,316 as demand from coronavirus-affected countries have come down even as a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia is putting pressure.

On NCDEX, castor seed, chana, coriander, cotton seed, guar gum, jeera, turmeric and soybean traded with losses.

Here is how SMC Globals expects commodities to fare today:

Bullion: Gold can rise towards Rs 41,300 while taking support near Rs 40,600 while silver can rise towards Rs 41,700, taking support near Rs 40,500.

Base metals: Base metals may trade with a negative bias. Copper may move towards Rs 413 while facing resistance near Rs 421. Zinc can move towards Rs 148 while facing resistance near 154. Lead may move sideways as it can take support near Rs 138 while facing resistance near Rs 143. Nickel may move towards Rs 895, facing resistance near 920.

Energy: Crude oil may witness further selling pressure. It can dip towards Rs 2,300-2,250. Natural gas can also trade in red as it can dip towards Rs 134 while facing resistance near Rs 138.

Spices: The overall trend of turmeric futures (April) is down and it shall continue till Rs 5,400-5,350 owing to expectations of higher output. Jeera futures (April) may witness a consolidation in the range of Rs 13,000-13,300 and the upside may remain capped. Coriander futures (April) is expected to trade with a downside bias in the range of Rs 5,500-5,700. Cardamom futures (April) may plunge towards Rs 2,350-2,300.

Oilseeds: Soybean futures (April) is expected to go down further towards Rs 3,350-3,300 tracking negative sentiments prevailing on CBOT and sell off in the overseas market. Looking at the panic in the global markets due to outbreak of Covid-19 and market participants increasing their bearish positions in edible oils, soy oil futures (April) may continue to slide to Rs 710-700. The possibilities are higher that CPO futures (April) may revisit its previous low of Rs 600-590.

Other commodities: Cotton futures (March) will possibly continue to hold on to the support near Rs 17,700, while the upside may get extended towards Rs 18,400-18,500. Mentha oil futures (March) is expected to trade sideways to down in the range of Rs 1,145-1,175. Chana futures (April) is likely to trade in a broader range of Rs 3,700-3,850.


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