Market bull Tony Dwyer sees more wild swings as the year’s second half kicks off due to a spike in coronavirus cases and growing odds of a Joe Biden presidency.
But it’s not weighing on his optimism.
“The resurgence of the virus in the southern states and the lead by Joe Biden in the polls is probably pulling forward some of that volatility that may have happened later in the year,” the Canaccord Genuity chief market strategist told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Tuesday. “We want to use that to add a little bit of risk incrementally.”
Near-term, Dwyer believes stocks are in the consolidation phase within a new bull market.
He contends the market is in a much better position than it was in March when the virus began raging. According to Dwyer, the big difference now is the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented policy support.
“The Fed has made it very clear they are going to continue to print money to support the credit market until they get their dual mandate of full employment and 2% core inflation,” he said. “That’s not going to be for a while.”
As for politics, Dwyer believes the market will adjust. If Biden wins the White House, he speculates the Fed will offset potential tax cut rollbacks by getting even more aggressive.
The backdrop drove Dwyer to upgrade his S&P 500 12-to-18-month target to 3,300-plus from 3,000 this week. The move reflects a 6.5% minimum gain from Tuesday’s close, as the index wrapped up its best quarter since 1998.
“It sounds kind of weird. What does plus mean? The reason is I have no idea what valuation to use when I have an unlimited printing press,” he said.
His bull case reflects successful efforts to contain the coronavirus and the continued extreme Fed support.
“On weakness as we see as volatility, we want to be buying those economic reopening areas because of this Fed stimulus,” he added. “Once you turn the light switch on, once there is a vaccine, it’s going to create an environment where you’re going to have rapid economic activity.”
And, that’s why Dwyer is targeting cyclical areas of the market.
“It’s simply the post-recession trade,” Dwyer said. “What typically happens coming out of a recession is that you want to be long [in the] the economic reopening areas like the financials, the industrials, the materials [and] the consumer discretionary.”