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INR vs USD: Rupee may hit 74 per dollar by September 2020, say experts


INR vs USD: On account of the weak US dollar (USD), the Indian National Rupee (INR) is expected to gain its lost ground in the coming times, especially in the next quarter starting next month. According to the currency experts, the rupee can go down only when there is geo-political standoff like India China war, or resurgence of the Coronavirus spread leading to March 2020 scenario and both are distinct possibilities. They said that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been buying dollars and the Indian government has enough of dollar reserves that will help national currency to remain firm at the COMEX — a platform that decides the conversion of six major currencies against the US Greenback. Experts were of the opinion that rupee is currently trading in the range of 75 to 76.5 but if the RBI stops buying dollars on gains, it may come close to 74 per dollar levels by teh end of july-September quarter.

Speaking on rupee to dollar conversion Anindya Banerjee, Deputy Vice President at Kotak Securities said, “Indian rupee in next quarter is very strongly placed as the dollar has gone weak. Both the US Fed and the IMF have given negative outlook for the US and other major economies that means the COMEX dollar will remain under pressure. Rupee may fall only when there is Sino Indian standoff at extreme levels or ther is resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic forcing the lockdown for a longer period of time. But, both scenarios look extremely distinct and hence I am expecting rupee to gain in the coming times.”

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Banerjee went on to add that in the next July to September quarter, rupee is expected to trade in the range of 75 to 76.5 range but if the RBi stops buying dollars as it has been doing on a regular basis, then rupee may come close to 74 levels by the end of September 2020.

Standing in sync with Anindya’s views Anuj Gupta, Deputy Vice President — currencies & Commodities at Angel Broking said, “Weak dollar and weak economic prediction by teh IMF and Fed regarding the US economy will help rupee to gain its ground in the coming quarter as economy is opening up after a long lockdown.” He said that in the next fortnight, we may witness rupee coming closer to 75 levels provided the Coronavirus remains at its current levels and the news of a second wave of Coronavirus remains at the place where it is currently placed.


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